Changes to population distribution in the GCR (1996-2022)

In some of the earliest Maps of the Month published by GCRO, we mapped the population distribution of the Gauteng City-Region (GCR) using a cartographic approach known as ‘dot-density’. In dot density maps each randomly placed dot represents a given number of what is being represented (for example, 1 dot = 100, or 1 dot = 1000) within a geographic boundary. The maps are extremely effective at representing both the density and distribution of a population across a geographic area.

GCRO’s April 2010 Map of the Month, the fourth we ever published, mapped the population of the GCR according to the 2001 Census conducted by Statistics South Africa (StatsSA), using what is known as the Small Area Layer (SAL). Here each randomly placed dot within an SAL cell represented 100 people. The map included a 100 km radius drawn from the centre of Johannesburg, and indicated that there were approximately 10 million people within this circle. The same map was marked with a radius of 175 km and calculated that this outer circle encompassing the wider GCR held some 13 million people.

A similar map was published in October 2010, using the same method but this time dividing the 2001 population by race. Here, each dot in an electoral ward represented 100 people, and the dots were coloured differently for Africans, whites, coloureds and Indian/Asians.

The exercise was repeated twice in 2013 with newly available Census 2011 data. The March 2013 map showed the population distribution and density broken down by race. It highlighted that not much had changed between 2001 and 2011 in the starkly-racialised distribution of different population groups across the GCR. And in August 2013 we used the new data to replicate the radius analysis, illustrating that the population within 100 km of the centre of Johannesburg had grown to 13,4 million and within 175 km to 16,8 million.

In this March 2026 Map of the Month, we return to the theme of these early GCRO Maps of the Month. We use newly available data from StatsSA’s Census 2022, released for the first time at the ward level in November 2025. This time, we take the picture back to 1996 and show a comparative sequence that also reproduces the 2001 and 2011 maps, and brings the picture up to date with 2022 Census data. The 1996, 2001 and 2011 maps are all done using 2011 ward boundaries, based on data downloaded in this geography from StatsSA. The 2022 picture uses different 2022 ward boundaries (drawn for the 2021 municipal elections), since StatsSA has not (yet) projected the previous Census data into the latest wards, nor provided 2022 data in the earlier boundaries. We recognise that this may distort the picture somewhat by creating the illusion of shifting population concentrations in areas where ward boundaries have changed, but our preliminary investigations suggest that the effect on the overall spatial patterns is minimal and does not invalidate the exercise.

Figure 1: Dot density maps of population distribution across the GCR: 1996 (top left), 2001 (top right), 2011 (bottom left), 2022 (bottom right) (Source: Statistics South Africa (StatsSA)).

Figure 1 compares the population distribution across the GCR in four panels, for 1996, 2001, 2011 and 2022. The comparison clearly shows the significant increase in population over the period. As is evident from both the thickening and spreading of dots, the sequence of maps makes it clear that this growth has manifested as both densification and urban expansion.

The growth is particularly noticeable between 1996 and 2001, and again between 2001 and 2011. Over these periods, the maps show a significant infill of the previously open spaces that separated Pretoria and the northern settlements around Mabopane/Soshanguve, and Pretoria from Johannesburg. The expansion of Johannesburg’s north-western edge is also very clear, as is marked growth in the southern parts of Ekurhuleni and around Rustenburg.

The overall increase in population is less apparent in the 2011 to 2022 period, reflecting the already known Census statistics on slower population growth rates in Gauteng (Götz et al., 2023). But there was also notable growth in several areas in this period. Particularly noticeable is the thickening of dots north of Pretoria (the space between A and D on the map); east and west of Pretoria, along the Moloto corridor (C on the map); and the eastern edge of Ekurhuleni. There is also an obvious aberration in the 2022 map that speaks to weaknesses in the 2022 Census data collection and results (Harrison et al., 2023). The unexpected appearance of a ‘hole’ in the coverage of dots around Midrand (just left of E on the map) reflects measured declines in population in many wards in the northern parts of Johannesburg. This is incongruous, given what is known about the continued densification of this area driven by new townhouses and residential estates.

The key takeaway from the maps is the overall population count in the 100 km and 175 km circles centred on Johannesburg. The precise numbers are given in Figure 2. The analysis reveals that the population of the GCR inside the 100 km circle grew from 13,4 million in 2011 to 16,3 million in 2022, an increase of just under 3 million. Meanwhile, the population inside the 175 km circle grew by 3,3 million, meaning that the GCR – understood as the settlements within 175 km of the centre of Johannesburg – now has a population of over 20 million people.

The detailed statistics in Figure 2 show that the annual average growth rate inside the 100 km circle has slowed from 2,7% per year in the 2001-2011 period to 1,8% per year over 2011-2022. Intriguingly, the growth rate of the settlements between 100 km and 150 km from the centre slowed very dramatically, from 2,3% to just 0,8%. But the growth rate of those areas on the outer edge of the GCR between 150 km and 175 km from the centre increased, from 0,8% to 1,1%.

Figure 2: Population counts and change across the GCR: 1996, 2001, 2011, 2022 (Source: Statistics South Africa (StatsSA)).

References

Götz, G., Ballard, R., Hassen, E.K., Hamann, C., Mahamuza, P., Maree, G., Miles-Timotheus, S., Modiba, M., Murahwa, B., Mushongera, D., Naidoo, L., Naidoo, Y., Ndagurwa, P. (2023). Statistical surprises: Key results from Census 2022 for Gauteng. GCRO Rapid Research Paper. Johannesburg: Gauteng City-Region Observatory. https://doi.org/10.36634/PTPX7414.

Harrison, P., Götz, G., Tides, A., Mushongera, D. (2023). South Africa’s 2022 census – has Joburg stopped growing or are the numbers simply wrong? The Conversation Africa, 17 October 2023.

Cartography/mapping: Christian Hamann.

Inputs, edits, and comments: Dr Laven Naidoo and Dr Samkelisiwe Khanyile.

Suggested citation: Graeme Götz and Christian Hamann (2026). Changing population distribution across the Gauteng City Region (1996-2022), GCRO Map of the Month, March 2026. Gauteng City-Region Observatory, Johannesburg. https://doi.org/10.36634/XNPR5012.