Highest educational attainment and social mobility over time

Introduction

Social or class mobility – which refers to a positive shift in social status, class position, or place on the income and wealth ladder – is something that most people aspire to. Educational attainment is a key component of greater class mobility. Educational attainment refers to the percentage of the population with formal qualifications at various levels and serves as a proxy for human capital and individual skill levels (OECD, 2022). Achieving higher levels of education increases one’s social capital, social status, and employability (Kousar et al 2025; Kitsoleris & Culo 2025). Apartheid in South Africa created an unequal socio-economic structure that presented social mobility opportunities to some, but excluded the majority of the population from the same opportunities. This education system was a key mechanism underpinning this structural inequality, where the quality of education was differentiated by race. In contrast, the post-apartheid education system has strived for equal quality and access to opportunity for all.

In this Vignette, we unpack the outcome of post-apartheid efforts to expand and restructure the education system. We analyse data on educational attainment from the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) Quality of Life (QoL) survey, comparing responses across successive birth cohorts. The goal is to see if educational attainment increased for respondents born since the end of apartheid (after 1991), compared to those born before 1950, and those born during the high-apartheid period between 1951 and 1990. We analyse educational attainment trends for population groups, sex categories, and by migration status (born in another South African province or another country).

Method

Similar to the approach used by Chow and Guppy (2021), we merged seven iterations of the GCRO QoL survey series to construct an age-cohort dataset that allows us to compare educational attainment across different birth cohorts. This method creates robust sample sizes and provides useful comparisons between birth cohorts, as opposed to comparisons between survey years.

Our dataset includes a total of 118 885 respondents who were at least 23 years old when they were interviewed in their respective iteration of the QoL survey series. The age selection of 23 years is necessary in order to provide a more complete educational attainment picture. Respondents who were younger than 23 years when they were interviewed are more likely to still be in the process of attaining their highest possible education level, and including them would skew our results.

In each iteration of the QoL survey series, the age of each respondent and the date they were interviewed were recorded. These two variables were used to calculate the birth year of each respondent. The birth years were then recoded into birth cohorts that represent three different periods – those born before 1950, those born between 1951 and 1990, and those born after 1991, as well as specific generations (for example, Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials, and Generation Z) for more granular analysis. Each QoL survey respondent was also asked to indicate the highest level of education that they have attained. We used this information to calculate the number of years of education that each respondent completed. For primary and secondary school grades, having completed Grade 1 is equated to 1 year of schooling, Grade 2 equals 2 years of schooling, up to 12 years of schooling for those who completed Grade 12/Matric. A tertiary certificate counts for 14 years of schooling, a tertiary diploma and a tertiary degree count for 15 years of schooling, and a postgraduate degree (Honours, Master's, or PhD) counts for 17 years of schooling (Branson and Ressom, 2026).

Discussion

The results show that educational attainment has increased for all population groups and sex categories. Among population groups, black Africans remain the furthest behind, but this group has shown substantial improvement – a seven percentage point drop in the proportion with none or only primary education over time and a 10 percentage point increase in the proportion with tertiary education.

The effects of apartheid are evident in the analysis of educational attainment. The proportion of black African respondents with incomplete secondary education increased for those born between 1951 and 1990, but decreased for whites, clearly indicating that black African respondents who were born between 1951 and 1990 did not have the same schooling opportunities as white respondents. On the other hand, educational attainment for most respondents born after 1991 has improved. The proportion of respondents with incomplete secondary education as their highest level of education declined for those born after 1991 (except for white respondents), and the proportion who completed matric increased.

Overall, the proportion of respondents with tertiary education qualifications increased from 25% of those born before 1950 to 33% of those born after 1991. The proportion of black Africans who obtained a tertiary education qualification increased from 23% of those born before 1950 to 33% of those born after 1991. Similar increases are visible for coloured and Indian/Asian respondents.

Similar to the results from analysis conducted by the OECD (2022), our data shows that educational attainment for females caught up to and slightly surpassed that of males. In our analysis of Gauteng, the mean years of schooling for males and females born more recently are higher and closer to each other compared to respondents born before 1950. Among those born between 1997 and 2006 (Gen Z), the mean years of schooling for females (average of 12 years) exceeds that of males (average of 11.8 years). The proportion of women with incomplete secondary education has also declined to 27%, while the proportion for men increased slightly to 30%. This suggests that female dropout rates might have declined for learners born since 1991. The percentage of females with tertiary education qualifications increased substantially, from 24% for those born before 1950 to 34% for those born after 1991.

When we look at migration status, it is clear that being born in Gauteng has an advantage for educational attainment. Respondents born in Gauteng have an average of 11.7 years of schooling, compared to 10.5 years of schooling for those who were born elsewhere (either in another province of South Africa or another country).

References

Branson, N. and Ressom, H. (2026). Intergenerational education mobility trends in South Africa: Patterns by population group. SA-TIED Working Paper 286. https://sa-tied.wider.unu.edu/article/intergenerational-education-mobility-trends-in-south-africa-patterns-by-population-group.

Chow, A. & Guppy, N. (2021). Intergenerational educational mobility over the past century in Canada. Canadian Review of Sociology/Revue Canadienne De Sociologie, 58, pp. 372–398. https://doi.org/10.1111/cars.12348.

Kitsoleris, G. and Culo, S. (2025). The influence of education on social mobility in Croatia and Greece: A comparative analysis. Public Sector Economics, 49 (4), pp. 615-643. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.49.4.5.

Kousar, G., Zulfiqar, M., Danish, M., Khurshid, S. and Ismaeel, M.R. (2025). The Interplay of Economic Inequality and Social Mobility: A Socioeconomic Perspective on Class Stratification. Dialogue Social Science Review (DSSR), 3 (3), pp. 104–114. https://dialoguesreview.com/index.php/2/article/view/363.

OECD. (2022). Education at a Glance 2022: OECD Indicators. OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/3197152b-en.

Design: Ink Design PUBLISHING SOLUTIONS and Christian Hamann

Inputs, edits, and comments: Graeme Götz, Dr Laven Naidoo, Dr Samkelisiwe Khanyile, Ebrahim-Khalil Hassen.

Suggested citation: Hamann, C. (2026). Highest education qualification attainment and social mobility over time. GCRO Vignette #45, July 2026. Gauteng City-Region Observatory, Johannesburg. https://doi.org/10.36634/TMSM1557.