Finding our rhythm: Pathways and futures for the Gauteng City-Region

Finding Our Rhythm: Gauteng Scenarios 2035 is the outcome of a scenario building process undertaken by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) on behalf of the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO). Commissioned in 2024, the project aimed to adapt the national Indlulamithi Scenarios 2035 to Gauteng’s distinctive economic, social and governance context, and to provide strategic insights for the 7th Administration of the Gauteng Provincial Government (GPG) as it developed its 2024–2029 Medium-Term Development Plan (MTDP).

The process employed MISTRA’s 'Intuitive Logics' scenario-planning methodology, which integrates expert judgement, stakeholder deliberation and empirical research. Central to this approach was the identification of variables and key driving forces shaping Gauteng’s future, enabling a structured exploration of uncertainty through strategic conversations rather than predictive modelling.

The process of developing the scenarios unfolded in three phases. In the first phase MISTRA established governance structures, conducted expert interviews, and convened an initial stakeholder workshop.

In the second phase an extended reference team of expert stakeholders identified, refined and ranked key variables according to impact and uncertainty. Twenty-six (26) key variables were identified and synthesised into three Key Driving Forces (KDFs), aligned with Gauteng’s MTDP priorities: (1) the performance of the Gauteng economy (dynamism versus depression); (2) living conditions, health and wellbeing (improving or deteriorating quality of life); and (3) governance (chaos versus consensus-building).

In the final phase MISTRA developed draft scenarios and then tested and refined these through iterative drafting and stakeholder 'wind-tunnelling'.

On this basis, the report develops three distinct scenarios for Gauteng in 2035. Each is named after a popular song from the period before the dawn of South Africa’s democracy.

The first scenario is named It’s About Time, Boom Shaka’s 1994 hit that gave musical expression to black youth’s sense of arrival and hope for the future. It describes a future in which political instability and economic constraints persist, but incremental reforms begin to take hold. Modest improvements in governance, infrastructure maintenance and policy coordination allow Gauteng to stabilise, although progress remains uneven and vulnerable to shocks. Social pressures ease slightly, but deep structural challenges, especially unemployment and spatial inequality, continue to limit transformative change.

The Homeless scenario is name after Paul Simon and Ladysmith Black Mambazo’s haunting ballad. Released during the height of the struggle, the song was a lament for people rendered foreigners in the land of their birth. While many elements of the first scenario are gloomy, this second scenario is the most pessimistic of the three. It projects a starkly negative trajectory marked by political fragmentation, authoritarian populism and institutional decay. Weak coalition governance gives way to increasingly centralised and corrupt power, undermining democratic accountability and state capacity. Economic contraction accelerates, skilled residents and migrants leave the province, unemployment rises sharply, and crime and social conflict intensify. Inequality deepens as wealthier groups retreat into enclaves while poorer communities face worsening access to services, housing and security.

In contrast, Paradise Road outlines a more optimistic and desirable future in which Gauteng succeeds in building consensus around a developmental agenda. This third scenario is named after all-girl South African vocal trio Joy’s 1970s hit that captured a longing for better days, at the time seemingly unattainable. In this scenario a dramatically better future for Gauteng is envisaged, where sustained economic diversification, investment in digital and physical infrastructure, and improved governance enable stronger growth and job creation. Expanded social protection, revitalised township economies and a growing creative sector help to reduce poverty and inequality, while improved state capability strengthens service delivery and social cohesion. Although challenges remain, this scenario demonstrates that deliberate, coordinated action can place Gauteng on a more inclusive and resilient path.

The final section translates insights from the scenarios into a proposed developmental path for Gauteng to 2035, aligned with national and provincial policy frameworks, including the National Development Plan, the Government of National Unity’s priorities, and the Gauteng MTDP. The strategic thrust focuses on eliminating extreme poverty, significantly reducing inequality, and expanding employment – particularly for young people – while building a capable, ethical and developmental state.

This Finding Our Rhythm Occasional Paper offers scenarios not as forecasts, but as strategic tools to support long-term planning under conditions of uncertainty. It argues that while Gauteng faces profound risks – economic stagnation, infrastructural stress, climate change and governance failures – it also retains significant assets. Realising a Paradise Road future will depend on sustained political commitment, institutional reform and social partnership over the next decade.

Suggested citation: Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA). (2025). Pathways and futures for the Gauteng City-Region: Scenarios to 2035. GCRO Occasional Paper 23. Gauteng City-Region Observatory, December 2025. https://doi.org/10.36634/JDOK8748