Modelling urban spatial change in the GCR

This project investigates what modelling is currently being undertaken to analyse urban change and predict future urban development. The results will be compiled into a research report, which, together with significant urban spatial data that GCRO has collated, will inform the development of an urban spatial change model in 2013/14.

One of the key tasks of urban observatories is to provide futures modelling. GCRO has yet to undertake this form of modelling but has invested a significant amount of time and resources in collating an extensive spatial database covering the Gauteng City-Region, which could form the basic input into the modelling exercise. However, before embarking on modelling to identify relationships and predict urban spatial change in the GCR, it is important to take note of, and critically assess the learning from, a number of projects that have recently focused on modelling future urban development in Gauteng. These include:

The CSIR Urban Sim project and its partnership with Enerkey to investigate the impact of future urban development trends on energy consumption in Gauteng;
The City of Johannesburg Growth Management Strategy, developed by the Directorate of Development Planning and Facilitation which considers growth trends and development indicators within the city;
The Gauteng Spatial Development Framework which was designed around 5 models developed to direct future urban growth in the province;
GCRO metabolic flows and infrastructure transitions project – while not necessarily modelling urban spatial change, there are definite linkages with the GCRO modelling urban spatial change project and the metabolic flows project may provide useful data and models.

The first phase of this project (Part A) will focus on producing a draft research report that investigates what urban change modelling or simulation is taking place within South Africa. Each modelling project will be reviewed and key personnel interviewed. Current International modelling trends will also be assessed and a study visit to an international centre of modelling excellence may be arranged if a suitable opportunity arises and additional budget can be sourced. The report will provide a critical analysis of the modelling and data that is being utilised and conclude with recommendations on:

What modelling methodology, software and visualization tools might be appropriate for a GCRO urban change modelling project that could also benefit and inform the Gauteng Planning Commission G2055 project;
What data and variables are available and should be utilised in the modeling;
The comparable unit of analysis to be used in the modelling.

The second phase of the project (Part B) will start in the 2013/2014 financial year, utilising the report recommendations from the first phase to inform data preparation and modelling, with the final envisaged project output being both a draft model, and a final GCRO research report on modelling urban spatial change in the GCR. The development of visualisation tools simulating urban change (that could be made available on the GCRO website) will also be considered.

Key partners

GCRO will partner with the South African NRF Chair for Development Planning and Modelling, Professor Phil Harrison and his post-doctoral researcher Dr. Koech Cheruiyot, and liaise closely with the CSIR, Built Environment team working on the Urban Sim project.

Outputs in 2012/13

The primary output will be a draft 80-100 page research report (Part A), jointly authored by Chris Wray, Koech Cheruiyot and Josephine Musango, completed by March 2013. This will only be finalised and printed in 2013/14.